Analysts: 2010 will be successful for metallurgists
By admin at 27 January, 2010, 10:10 am
Despite the fact that in 2009 the volume of steel production in Ukraine decreased by 23% to 29,4 million tons, namely steel sector last year was the most liquid. The volume of shares traded Ukrainian metkompany made 1,6 billion hryvnia. This is stated in the review, prepared by analysts of the company Foyil Securities.
"We expect that this year the prices of basic commodities, including iron ore concentrate and coking coal will rise to $ 66 (20% compared to the Year 2009) and 121 dollars (30%) per ton. Furthermore, we forecast increase in demand for steel products in the Middle East and North Africa. In our view, due to these factors the average price of hot-rolled coils Ukrainian production will be 522 dollars per tonne, which is 87 dollars more than in 2009, "- commented Ismail Safaraliyev analyst .
Also analysts Foyil Securities recommended to pay special attention to the producers of steel sheet, including the company "Iron & Steel Works, Alchevsk Iron and Steel and Steel Works of Mariupol. Illich. According to Ismail Safaraliyeva, this year also is expected to increase deliveries by-products in European Union countries, mainly through Intragroup sales. At the same time, manufacturers of long products will continue to experience difficulties in marketing their products, as well as the construction sector is still in hibernation.
As expected, experts, last year has failed for the majority of Ukrainian metkompany for several reasons. First, the rapid decline in demand in the first half led to an unprecedented decline in production. For instance, steel exports decreased by 16,5% in volume terms. Furthermore, owing to the fall of the Ukrainian economy were not justified hopes for Ukrainian consumers, which could absorb part of the product, released for export. As a result, in 2009, domestic steel consumption has decreased by 37% to 5,8 million tons, while steel production fell by 19% to 29,7 million tons. Secondly, the unprecedented fall in steel prices, recorded in the second half of 2008, continued in January-April. As a result, the price of this product has reached the minimum value of $ 345 per ton, which is below cost of production for the majority of Ukrainian steel mills.
At the end of the third quarter of 2009, seven leading steel producers have reported losses of $ 3 billion hryvnia. As expected analysts Foyil Securities, to finish the year with a small profit can be just three companies - Azovstal, Mariupol Steel them. Illich and ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog ".
In the current year should recover the majority of Ukrainian metkompany, but the pace of growth will depend on the ability of enterprises to increase their sales and keep production costs. Analysts remain positive outlook for producers of sheet steel and slabs. At the same time, manufacturers of long products in 2010 will remain depressed.
"We expect that in 2010 the Ukrainian metallurgists will release 33.6 million tons of steel that is 13% more than last year. Overall, in 2010 the situation should be improved compared with last year - forecast Safaraliyev.
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