CBR: The price of oil in 2010 may exceed the $ 10-15 to forecast government

price of oil in 2010 may exceed $ 10-15 for the official forecast of the Government of Russia in the $ 58 per barrel, said first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.

"Most likely, the price of Urals oil will be above the upper projections than to the bottom. It is safe to assume that the average price of oil, which is calculated on the basis of the budget for 2010 ($ 58 per barrel) will be $ 10-15 exceeded" - Ulyukayev told reporters in Tula. He attributes this to the expected global economic growth this year by about 3%, which would increase the price of commodity assets - oil, gas and metals.

"From my point of view, the oil price from $ 70 to $ 80 per barrel most comfortable. It reflects a balance of interests between producers and consumers. I think that most of the participants, which may affect the market, will try to keep prices in that state. And respectively, it creates good prospects for Russian enterprises involved in exporting to its partners in the production relations, as there are positive expectations for the budget ", - said Ulyukaev. He believes that the state of Russia"s budget in 2010 will be significantly better revenue and the deficit than expected.

addition, Ulyukayev belie1000ves that in 2010 the trade balance of Russia will consistently positive, we can expect symmetric growth of exports and imports. He recalled that the trade surplus in 2009 totaled $ 110 billion

"The trade balance in 2010 is very positive, close to the values of 2009. The same thing on the current account - a surplus at $ 40 billion, probably up to 2010" - believed the first deputy chairman of the CBR.

Ulyukayev also considers it possible that the situation with the influx of capital will be somewhat better than expected. "We expect in 2010 a small outflow of private capital, but very possible, in my opinion, a certain flow," - said the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank.

This means that the situation on the domestic foreign exchange market will be more attributable to a large supply of currency and lower demand.

"Our real exchange rate policy will be liberal, the ruble exchange rate movements will be in the direction of growth and downward, these movements may be within days and may take several months. They may be the same as the motion of a pair of Euro - dollar (in the market Forex ", - he said, stressing that the transition to a free rate fixing - is one element in overcoming the shortcomings of the system, which triggers excessive inflow-outflow of capital.

"The fact that we can implement this element of inflation targeting (float), I"m sure a lot more than that, we can realize a number of other essential elements. We are already doing it gradually, gradually accustom society to freely float rate ", - said Ulyukaev.

He noted that the rate fixing in Russia is not entirely free, because the CBR was making a planned intervention, it will be further modified free rate fixing.

"I think (it), the normal model. We basically proved its viability society, decision-makers. I believe that any pending circumstances we can do this" - said Ulyukayev, noting that people and businesses already longer reacted nervously to the ruble exchange rate volatility, and the structure of deposits remains virtually unchanged.

Referring to fears of excessive strengthening of the ruble, Ulyukayev once again stressed that "this is not the business of the Central Bank - to predict the course". "We do not set goals for the course, we will make our arrangements so that he will not be too volatile," - he explained.

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