In growth

USD

While the dollar has not met on the way of any obstacles, enough to interrupt his movement upwards. Even the rather weak economic data failed to undermine confidence in the currency, although the pace of ascent. Orders for durable goods rose by 0,3%, not to tyanuv up to the expectations of analysts, because it was registered a decline in demand for commercial aerospace products. The volume of orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment last month reflected an increase of 0,9%, exceeding analysts" forecasts, but were lower than 2.1% growth in the previous month. A separate report showed that last week, fewer Americans filled the appeal for unemployment insurance. Meanwhile, purified from volatile factors 4-week average recorded increase in unemployment. Thus, the optimism of the Fed in the accompanying statement was clearly exaggerated, and if subsequent reports will show weakness, it does undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve.

Today we received the coveted figures for U.S. growth for 4 quarter. There is little doubt that we will see a positive level of GDP, with more than in the 3 rd quarter. Analysts predict a fairly high rate (4.5%), and if expectations are not met, the dollar may finally be giving way. GDP is made up of three key indicators: retail sales, trade volumes and growth stocks. If you review all of the shelves, the consumer spending in 4 th quarter is clearly greater than those in the 3-m. With regard to the trade balance - the deficit slightly increased. Well, and the volume of stocks have shown positive dynamics. So far, all in favor of accelerating the pace of growth ... but is unlikely to be exceeded forecasts.

EUR

As we said yesterday, the precedent was created, and now the pair have been much easier to go back under the 1.40 mark. Pressure on the currency was again rendered by the "Greek themes. Statement by the representative of China that China should not save the country through the purchase of its debt, provoked a wave of sales. Thus, the market renewed talk about the near bankruptcy of the country, leading to the collapse of the euro zone and the collapse of the national currency.

However, while the weakening euro is only for the benefit of the region, increasing the competitive opportunities and stimulating export business activity within the E-16. With regard to economic data, here everything looks pretty good. Despite the fact that the January unemployment figures in Germany have demonstrated for the first 7 months of growth, the index of confidence in the Europeans celebrated the tenth consecutive month of strengthening, since the recovery in world demand has stimulated export growth and earnings in the euro area.

Today"s calendar is rather interesting. We learn about the state of two indicators: unemployment and inflation. Both indicators are extremely important for the region"s economy, and, respectively, and for the national currency. As soon as the first of them will sure drop, and the second - steady growth, wait for action by the ECB and the strengthening euro. And now ... only a significant excess of forecasts can restore the position of EUR.

GBP

Dynamics pounds in the last few days, each time is deja vu. In tandem with the dollar the currency fluctuates within a fairly narrow range, not having sufficient force to break one way or another border. Yesterday SP once again brought confusion. The agency noted that did not regard Britain as a country with the most stable banking systems. This undoubtedly put pressure on the British currency, and will assist in the future. Nevertheless, the fact that support for 1.61 still not been broken, said the potential of strengthening the GBP.

However, if the subject ranking and will continue to exaggerate the market, it could still drag down the British, because in terms of investment risk in the UK the country is now on a par with Portugal, Ireland and Austria. Today, the currency will move under the influence of the events of the American session.

JPY

pair dollar /yen remains the most appropriate of the major competitors. The fact that this movement more precisely defined the fundamental background and not influenced by speculative trading on the risks. It"s just pointless, as both currencies are the currencies of refuge. Jena managed to strengthen against the dollar and other opponents, despite the weak economic data. In December, consumer prices in Japan, said the 10 th consecutive month of decline, have raised concern about the fact that deflation remains a threat to economic recovery. Prices excluding food fell by 1.3% y /y against -1.7% in November. In January, a distinguished Tokyo CPI (traditional leading indicator of inflationary pressure) fell by 2%. More optimistic results we obtained from the labor market, where the rate of b /p dropped to 5,1% against 5,2% a month earlier, while household expenditure increased by 2,1%.

The federal funds rate was maintained at the same level of 0-0.25% per annum
EU: Greece does not threaten to default and exit from the euro zone.
Litvitsky: external payment position of Ukraine is gradually being consolidated
Tigipko reiterates its neutrality in the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine
Of the shares of oil companies in the positive zone traded Gazprom, the largest decline noted in the securities of Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz
Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX rose 1.05%, the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose to 0,85%
It is too early to talk about the return of the era of a strong dollar - to select securities that can profit "bulls", yet widely
Trading volume on the MICEX derivatives market at 16:00 Moscow time amounted to 4.41244 billion rubles
"IDC Holding" by 2011 fully switch to RAB-regulation

Leave a comment