Overview of the oil market for 02.07.09
By admin at 3 July, 2009, 6:12 pm
Vitaliy Shevchenko, ananalyst company UMIS, currency market, the oil sector, non-ferrous metals
Dynamics
On Thursday, the pressure on oil prices rose. Quotations demonstrated quite active fall for the third consecutive day.
At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH cost of the August futures for U.S. light crude oil fell to 2.59 dollars and its price, therefore, amounted to 66.72 dollar per barrel.
At the ISE Stock Exchange in London, the cost of oil brand Brent fell by 2.33 to 66.46 dollars per barrel.
Causes
Trades June 2 began with the fact that China has been cast signals to strengthen the dollar. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs expressed hope in the stability of the dollar, and only pointed out that in the future will need to work on the diversification of the international monetary system. On the factors that have put pressure are the dynamics at the currency market and increase production in Russia. The index of the dollar, tracking the course of American currency to the currencies of six major trading partners, enhanced by more than 0.3%. Extraction of black gold in the Russian Federation is increasing the fourth month in succession, for the month of June increased by 1,5% in annual terms, up to 40.465 million tons, or 9.846 million barrels per day. All statements by representatives of the Russian Federation to support the efforts of OPEC to reduce inventories of raw materials in the world are empty in the face of real production. Also report the Ministry of the United States is not confirmed a sharp fall in stocks.
What to expect?
The technical picture is created in the oil market, as well as the stock market in general, could support oil prices, if the macroeconomic data can be more actively enhancing shareholder value.
What is fear?
The pressure on the quotes are likely to increase because of the U.S. government issued a report, which recorded a larger than expected decline in jobs in the world's largest economy. As a result, intensified speculation about the fact that out of the recession may take a prolonged and investors have reduced the demand for high-yield assets. We can not ignore the fact that Merrill Lynch has raised the forecast of development of GDP in the United States this year and in 2010
The pressure on the euro remains
On Thursday, the value of all metals traded on the LME, adjusted after a sharp rise the previous day
Ministry of Fuel and Energy has refused to count the practice of price corridor for light petroleum products at gas stations
Sweden will lead Europe to rebuild the economy
Analysis - Results of the day
If on Monday the U.S. stock exchanges opened in the negative, the Russian market will be the next Bear Holiday
The Russian market shares allocated IDC, which grow on the news on the transfer of power distribution companies to a single share by 2011
Next week is expected to remain negative sentiment on the stock sites
Rising oil prices in the run next two weeks can be up to $ 75, and by the end of the year - up to $ 100 a barrel
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