Week promises to be!

USD

As we expected, the dollar on the last working day of the week got back some lost, but it played a role not only profit-taking, but also a reaction to the comments of head FRS Bernanke. Previously stated that the neutral state Fedrezerva and the silence of officials putting pressure on the dollar, but now all fixed. The sounded on Friday morning speech Bernanke that the Fed will be ready to tighten policy when the economic recovery is sustainable, had a magical effect on the markets. Such a feeling that the words of one especially not thought about - all fascinated key phrase tighten policy. Of course, it is unlikely to mean that the U.S. central bank decides on an early transition to an exit strategy, but when the comments were chosen perfectly - within a few weeks, the dollar showed weakness on the very subject of differential rates.

Generally, we are quite skeptical of the dollar's chances to continue recovery. Economic indicators is not enough, comments, officials remain reticent, and new measures to stimulate not yet in sight. On the contrary, many of the implemented programs for this year is about to complete its action, which would mean that the positive data can quickly turn into a negative. Posted on Friday a report on the trade balance has caused a sigh of relief: a deficit in August showed decrease as exports reached an annual peak, while oil imports declined substantially. Export volumes rose by 0,2% to 128,2 billion dollars, with the most significant rise was recorded in the sector of the automotive industry (496 million dollars). But this is hardly enough to cause a prolonged strengthening of the national currency.

This week promises to be quite interesting in terms of fundamental events. Thus, we will have the opportunity to compare the state of the U.S. economy with that of, say, in Australia, so that feels good, that she decided to move to tighten monetary policy. Thus, among the reports is to provide retail sales, the protocol of last meeting of the FOMC, the consumer price index and data on capital flows. Indicators can provide the necessary impetus for the change of sentiment in the market, but will have to wait a bit: Monday promises to be fairly quiet, as the Japanese, Canadian and American markets will be closed due to holidays.

EUR

Moreover, Bernanke said that the prohibited words or more, and economic data from the euro zone is poor. Euro could not hold out under such pressure and a little weak at the end of the workweek. Last month, consumer prices in Germany weakened significant predictions, suggesting weak price pressures. HICP reflected a decrease of 0,5% y /g versus -0.1% y /y. In addition, in August, the volume of German exports unexpectedly fell for the first 4 months old. Adjusted sales abroad in Germany decreased by 1.8% m /m against growth of 1,7% in July, disappointing analysts, who expected growth of 1.9%. Such a turn of events, in principle, quite predictable: the growth of the national currency continues to put pressure on export-oriented economy of Germany. And, as we know, the single currency continued to increase during September, which promises to bring even more weak sales figures abroad.

As of this week, we will see the index of economic sentiment ZEW, consumer prices and trade balance. This day does not promise any event, given the absence of a large number of traders. However, remember that during thin trading, there may be high volatility - be careful.

GBP

The British pound suffered heavy losses, despite the fairly positive data. Here is the whole point of good old expectations of a rate. Previously, the Fed attributed to the camp about the Bank of England against the background of their peaceful disposition and silence the theme of returning to a tightening, but now, after Bernanke, all changed. Nevertheless, we believe that the weakness of the pound doesnot last long, as the number of short positions on the currency is too high. Additionally, economic data still paint a mixed picture, sometimes forcing us to believe that the country is still close to stabilization.

For example, the British producer prices in September showed a steady growth than analysts expected. PPI has appreciated by 0.5% m /m and 0.4% y /y, the first positive value of the annual rate from April. Data for August were revised up to 0,3% m /m and -0.3% y /y. A separate report showed that trade deficit in goods declined to STG6.24 billion from STG6.431 billion in July, reaching its lowest level since June 2006

Given the high saturation of the UK economic calendar this week, we expect that the positive indicators may still be the most catalyst that will help recover some lost pound positions.

JPY

Jena has suffered heavy losses against the dollar, and this morning, only the movement continued, as some traders took advantage of a holiday in Japan, and covered short positions in a thin market. This dynamic pair dollar /yen, again, was due to expectations of a rate: Bernanke's comments have reminded the players that the Bank of Japan is very far from raising rates, especially given recent data CPI, confirming the threat of deflation.

Incidentally, the current week we had the opportunity to hear comments of officials on monetary policy - on Wednesday scheduled meeting of the Bank of Japan rate. Of course, it is unlikely we will hear something new, judging by their previous performances, but if they speak more optimistically about the economy, it could help the yen.

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