After a morning “gap down likely stabilization of Russia”s stock market
By admin at 5 March, 2010, 10:18 pm
Friday trading on Russia"s stock market began to decline due to the moderately negative external background. Thus, on the eve of U.S. indexes closed lower, with the morning continued downward movement in futures. Asian stock exchanges and traded in the red, in particular, playing an unexpected increase in Bank of India reserve requirements for banks. However, the main intrigue unfolded in the currency market - at the end of the week the EUR /USD updated semi-annual minimum of 1.4 and continued to fly down, reflecting growing concern about the ability of markets in Greece (and a few other large economies, notably Spain and Portugal) to refinance and serviceduty. For example, credit spreads on the Greek government securities reached a record, and the market is more negatively evaluates the effects of weak economies, the euro zone on the overall stability of the European Monetary Union (for example, one of the most influential economists in Davos, N. Roubini even talked about the risks of its decay). In turn, the strengthening of the dollar against the euro and other reserve currencies, putting pressure on commodity markets that Russia"s stock market is a clear disadvantage.
However, during the day markets got a chance to adjust upwards - to support European corporate reporting (BMW, Infinion) and, of course, the block statistic data from the U.S.. Almost all indicators were better than market expectations - 4Q09 preliminary estimate of GDP showed the highest growth over the last 6 years (5.7%) in the consensus 4.7%. Exceeded the consensus forecast and data on consumer confidence, and Chicago"s index of manufacturing activity. Against this backdrop, Russia"s stock market after a volatile trading session closed in positive territory - stock index added to 0.9%. It is better to grow the market shares of banks and Gazprom, finished the day in the red paper metallurgists and Rosneft, which Goldman Sachs has put in the focus list for "sale".
Meanwhile, after the closure of the main trading session in Russia, the background once again deteriorated. U.S. indices, after a short climb, finished the day in the red, losing 0.5% to 1.5%. Satisfactory macrodata, apparently, have had less impact on the market than the total loss of appetite for risky assets, and the leaders fall, despite a strong record of Microsoft, were shares of technology companies. Technically the same SP 500 rolled off below 100-day moving average, which could become an additional reason for sales. While continuing to strengthen the dollar and lower oil prices. This was partly played Russia"s futures Forts - decline was 1-1.5%. On the morning of negative sentiment continued in Asian markets.
Today, we expect a negative opening of the Russian trading. At the same time in the last hours of sentiment in commodity and stock markets have improved, most Asian indices and U.S. futures reached a plus, so after a morning gap down likely for the stabilization of Russia"s stock market. During the day, will a number of key macro data: the index of manufacturing activity in Germany, France and the eurozone, as well as the statistical unit in the U.S.: personal income and spending, and inflation (PCE), the index of industrial activity (ISM Manufacturing) and construction costs. At 18.00 the Minister of Finance T. Geithner will speak in the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. From the internal corporate events are expected reporting of Gazprom and Rosneft (IFRS).
During the week the key reports from the United States would be in the labor market (Wednesday - ADP, Friday - Ministry of Labor), business activity in the services sector and factory orders.
No comments yet.