Before the end of the year RTS index is expected to rise to the level of 1800 points

While acting break in the publication of macroeconomic and corporate data in the U.S. associated with the celebration of Independence Day of that country, we decided to concentrate on the analysis of the fundamental value of Russian stocks.

For comparison, take the 1999th year. This comparison seems valid, since the 1999th and 2009th years are the years of the early recovery from the global crisis. Of course, these two crises differ slightly, but the differences relate to the geography of a problem, rather than their consequences. The thesis of different scales of the two crises is highlycontroversial. Since the crisis began with the 1997-1998 year, the problems of financial systems and economies of developing (mainly Asian) countries. The current crisis began with defaults on sub-mortgages in the United States. At first glance, the magnitude was different. But one should not forget the relatively high global inflation over the decade - first, and the change of scale (relative to countries of G7) the Russian economy and financial system - the second. Thus, the maximum amount of foreign reserves in 1997-1998 was $ 24.55 billion, and in 2007-2008 had $ 598 billion (almost 25 times greater). The average oil price in 1997-1998 was $ 15.47 per barrel, while in 2007-2008 has already been $ 86 per barrel (almost 6 times more). GDP in these ten years, in nominal dollar terms increased by almost 7 times. Thus, the global crisis, even 12 times weaker than the current (if you take on losses) in 1998 was to assist the Russian economy at a comparable influence. A Asian crisis about this and was.

you verify the accuracy of comparison, the turn to the comparison of basic parameters. In 1999, the RTS index reached a maximum at 148.14, paragraph 08 July. Then, before September 22 it dropped to a minimum, paragraph 74.1, then began to grow, and never more than the minimum will not be returned. In the period from 08 July to 22 September, the average price of oil was $ 20.04. With such an average price of oil profit oil (which then and now forms the greater part of the value of our stock market) was $ 5.6 per barrel. Suppose, to the end of September, the average price of oil is $ 60 per barrel. This gives a $ 10.68 profit per barrel. Extraction for 10 years has increased by 58%. Thus, the combined profits of Russian oil production had grown about 3 times. At the same time, the stock price - it is discounted stream of profits. How to change the discount rate? It's very simple: in the period from July to September 1999 average yield of sovereign Eurobonds (RF28) was 24.38% per annum, is - 8.151% per annum. Ie discount rate should be reduced also in the three-fold. So, the fair value of Russian stocks should rise with years of 1999 to 9 times. Thus, a fair range for the RTS index 667.85-1335 .17 points. Applying the rule of three sigma we find that with a probability of 68% drop will stop at 890 points, but with a probability of 95% - at 780 points. In favor of what the market does not reach the level at 667.85 point, said lower than 10 years ago, the volatility: the upper bound of a fair range, we have not reached.

Therefore, we recommend the purchase of shares in Russia's RTS index range from 780 to 890 points. This is consistent with the range for the shares of Gazprom 133-143 rub. For Lukoil 1230-1310 rub., Rosneft, 150-160 rub. Sberbank 25-31 EUR., VTB 0.0292-0.0306 rub., Surgutneftegas 18-20 EUR. Until the end of the year we expect growth RTS index to 1800 points.

The highest rates of decline were to be found today in the shares of Gazprom, Gazprom oil and Tatneft
Course of purchase dollar down - the evening review of cash markets
Gains international companies in the next quarter will continue to decline
Moldova counts until the end of July conclude negotiations on the conditions of the issuance of credit in Russia to $ 0.5 billion
The greatest losses suffered by the action today, the metallurgical and petrochemical sectors
If the reporting season in the United States will be negative, we can wait for traffic to 800-850 items on the MICEX index
Tomorrow in the Russian market can be a technical rebound, but the reasons for the growth of no
As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 116.74 billion rubles
FGC contract for the supply of equipment from the PRC under the terms of concessional lending

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