If oil prices fall to $ 50-55 per barrel, the Russian market will go toward 800 points on the MICEX index
By admin at 14 July, 2009, 4:08 pm
The growth of Russian indices prevailing today in the morning due to a favorable external backdrop. Yesterday, a positively closed bidding in the U.S., there was the rally in Asian markets, oil prices had grown up well. Yesterday at the closing of the Russian market of sorts Brent barrel price $ 59.5, and today at the opening of brand price above $ 60 a barrel. Futures for U.S. indexes also were in positive zone, therefore, not surprising in the opening of the Russian market and this growth has not.
evening momentum trades probably will determine the macroeconomic data. Already took a moderately negative data for Europe: the euro zone industrial production in May rose by 0.5%, projecting growth of 1.2%. In Germany, the index of economic expectations ZEW in July was 39.5, 47.8 predicted. Well, in Europe we react less. Accordingly, the evening look forward to data on retail sales dollars, prices of American manufacturers in June, plus a report from Goldman Sachs. These data as a time and will determine the dynamics of trades closer to closure.
On the whole, yet to say that the downward trend is broken, I would not. All the fall can not continuously. The main risk factor for the Russian stock market is the price of oil, which does not seem to have so much. It is possible that the price will go to the area of $ 50-55 per barrel. In this case, the domestic market will be in the best case to test levels of 800 points on the MICEX index, or goes even lower. Therefore, while the risk remains. The situation in the economy is far from perfect, sometimes beyond the macroeconomic data would be weak.
At the end of this week - the beginning of the next will be more or less clear what to expect from the markets, will be more negative or positive signals.
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