Metropolitan RealEstate Market: brick by parachute

realtor stockpiled champagne

By the beginning of this year, the price per square meter in Ukraine fell by an average of two times, and the number of sales transactions close to zero. Buyers have lost any interest in land, and to transactions in commercial real estate. Move is merely the market rent, but on the number of potential kvartirosdatchikov of times greater than the number of applicants, employers.

However, by April, when the enormous efforts that focus on the brink, the national currency has been forced in the more or less decent values, stopped and stop the fall in the real estate market.

Moreover, the housing market revival has happened unexpectedly, and by June of the capital's real estate market have been literally swept (or revalued) for almost all gostinki 30-35 thousand and 40-45 for the full one thousand U.S. dollars.

Capital (and not only) realtor stockpiled champagne in anticipation of new long-term growth of prices per square meter. Bored without work and without money real estate often dare to even suggest to sellers of flats immediately raise prices further.

Over the past month, prices of many objects in Kiev really grown. On average, 10 thousand USD went malometrazhnye gostinki - a kind of small change in the market, at 10-20 thousand USD - One-and two-room apartment in the Soviet Czech. The holders of the same so-called comprehensive (very close and obsolete, but slightly better than the Czech in the former housing department homes) dootsenili their treasure at once at 25-30 thousand USD Some apartments in a rather unattractive condition, but in the center and went up to 50 thousand USD

However, significantly, sometimes by tens of thousands of dollars to reduce prices at a relatively high quality housing in attractive areas, often with a good repair, with several options offered by the built-in furniture and kitchen appliances.

Such a phenomenon is explained very simply: even lower since the beginning of the economic crisis in the country, the price that sellers we called elite housing, however, remained at inadequate levels. For the money that sellers wish tritely enticed out from the buyers (for example, for dvushki one put in service multi candles from the metro station Livoberezhna or Obolon), you can easily buy a few similar footage of the apartments or one villa in the prestigious districts of the capitals of many countries of the European Union.

no secret that these countries are disproportionately higher and the level and quality of life. Their populations, despite the financial crisis (which, incidentally, there are few who have observed), with considerable optimism about the future.

Thus, a sharp increase in prices of flat low-price segment and at least a sharp decline in prices in the market of elite apartments offset price indices. That is why the price indexes that are tracked in the popular online real estate portals, not rvanuli sharply upwards, and showed a moderate within the statistical error of the price increase.

Nevertheless, a number of factors indicates that the realtor obviously hurried to open a bottle of sparkling beverage, and real estate market in our country is far from the price floor.

all black sheep flock Port

Not

economic feasibility, and no adequate price per square meter driven the few buyers in the housing market in April and May of this year. Buying helped simply fear for their personal finances and insecurity.

Millions

fellow citizens not so long ago had become unwitting participants in the fear factor in Ukrainian, they entered the unequal fight (and many have won it) with some Ukrainian banks. It is only in America or the EU in the event of insolvency of financial institutions through the week, the investor receives a second check for all due to him under the deposit amount. In our country got the spread of know-how with the introduction of so-called interim administration in the problematic financial institutions, followed by the freezing of deposits for six months. By the way, the notorious six months the ban on the issuance of the deposits in most banks - financial losers end in August and September. Rather, these institutions and investors after the end of that period looked forward to, at best, only a very small part of the payment of contributions and the freezing the principal amount of bleak prospects.

According to official figures, equivalent to about 94 (!) bn. removed from the domestic financial system, citizens, and only about 1 billion of that amount returned to the system in April after a temporary stabilization of rate hryvnia.

is not difficult to guess about the plans of the citizens, has seized these billions.

Will Do massive return of deposits in banking institutions to the country? No, will not start. Indeed, so far to get to a few thousand hryvnia necessary for treatment, even pensioners have to undergo humiliating mnogonedelnye commission, which is very serious, and probably paid people to decide whether the investor deserves to get their own money for treatment (and so if there is a full package of certified medical documents). Even the equivalent of one thousand dollars (even for medical reasons) now pull out of some financial institutions of Ukraine is extremely problematic. It seems that the officials designated to dispose of the money from the Interim Administration has already considered these funds by their rather public.

There is a folk wisdom: black sheep flock spoils everything. The number of sheep, yet the recent spreading of adventurous lending for housing to the right and left, and also provide their owners personal windfall, our country is constantly growing. That is why the resumption of full confidence in the banking system can not read the question. The banking system is seriously compromised, and a long time.

In terms

stop lowering the standard of living in the country and reduce real wages and incomes of the withdrawn money from bank accounts, of course, be taken up. Part goes to the fading market for the sale of cars, some will be spent on imported household appliances, leaving the balance of foreign trade in goods for a long time to be us rejoice sharply negative.

Those who have appeared on the hands of a few tens of thousands of foreign currency, have a look just at the real estate market as an occasion to optimism of market operators. That's why rashvatali basically the cheapest options, but on what is left, the owners of housing prices have increased sharply.

Nevertheless, very soon, it is possible - in autumn of this year, in an extreme case within the next year, the real estate market of Ukraine is still collapses again. And vast trends affect all types of housing.

Second Wave

There are a number of circumstances that make the second wave of reduction of price per square meter is simply inevitable.

1. Falling economy, holey budget suspiciously zavyazshy in nepodemnyh debts Naftogaz and tune up the bankers require huge and continuous emission unsecured hryvna. Thus, the devaluation of the currency - just a matter of time. Currency prices per square meter, as the events of last year, will automatically fall down (with some time lag), together with the devaluation of hryvnia. Therefore, monetary cost of one square meter will drop, and some adjustments to this process can only make the likelihood of major problems the U.S. dollar in world markets, which in recent times transparently hinted Russia and China.

2. Characteristically, however, that at the moment, the price of the real estate market compared to their peak values last year fell only in foreign currency terms, and almost solely on the percentage of devaluation of hryvnia. In grivnevom calculating the price per square meter on the left or the old values, or even exceeded pre-crisis level. But mass consumer loose when, for example, in each 25-meter mobile salon two-three banks have their presence and then stamp credits, when the mortgages were issued almost a person without permanent place of residence, will never come back .

So far, Ukraine remains one of the poorest countries in Europe, with negligible gross income per capita, with low wages, with almost a total system of corruption, which prevents the penetration of long-term nespekulyativnyh investment in a country with excessive energy consumption, with nesovremennoy neinnovatsionnoy economies , and hence prices in the housing market of Ukraine may not be European. Consequently, we expect not only a strong currency devaluation square meter, but slight decrease in its prices in grivnevom calculus.

3. The cost of one square meter and in the capital of Ukraine, and in the regional center зашкаливает of all imaginable and unimaginable boundaries of potential return on an apartment. Virtually determine return on housing is fairly straightforward. Enough to reveal two sections, dealing with real estate in one of the capital's most popular advertising media and compare the conditional apartment from the sale on the same footage, location and parameters of the rent. It is difficult to determine that the return on almost all items (subject to at least the minimum investment in the periodic maintenance and updating of the minimum of furniture, but on condition of continuous tenancy), presented at the capital's housing market is on average at least 20-25 years. Remember: in dopuzyrnye Nearly every metropolitan apartment pay for 7-10 years.

It is clear that one can not equate return on housing in the civilized European markets and on our almost medieval (considering cheap factors of corruption in the land and permitting procedures, as well as the volatility of the financial system that minimizes the alternative investments in real estate). However, 20-25 years old - too. It is even more hopeless than the residential part to receive free housing in the Soviet times.

4. The attractiveness of investment in housing will be lowered and as the cost of housing and improve the tariff bars on Utilities. Bulky, poor housing authorities of all its problems, including increasing the personal well-being of the housing will continue to deal solely by homeowners. Already, the numbers in the monthly receipts for payment of housing costs and Kievans shock, and residents of other cities in the country.

5. And, finally, at some point in the real estate market to play a legitimate issue of banking sector. If now, not least thanks to powerful construction lobby, the supreme legislative body of the country producing legislation to support insolvent owners of apartments purchased for mortgage money, then very soon, the game can go in the opposite direction.

Rada to investors

Law On protection of property rights of citizens during the withdrawal of Ukrainian economy from the financial crisis, which proposed to impose a moratorium on the withdrawal of banks from the borrowers of housing, problems with repayment of the mortgage, in fact, would mean a slow but irrevocable collapse of the domestic banking system in Overall, as the banks are not mired in the mortgage problem in the country is quite a bit.

However, the law, placing in the privileged position of about 400 thousand of mortgage borrowers and discriminating about 12 million depositors of domestic financial system, money which, strictly speaking, and a whole feast on the real estate market is likely to be vetirovan and the president is unlikely to will be adopted again in its original form.

sooner or later and a very populist-minded lawmakers, and bankers to come to a common denominator, which is that the pressure-ipotechnikov debtors will still grow, but nepodemnye (on loan) flats will be released into the market and help lowering the general level of prices for it.

Thus, even when themortgage loan, which with some concern awaiting potential buyers of apartments, real estate market of Ukraine in the opposite direction does not spread. Too high will interest rates on mortgages with risk-based banking system, and too cautious to apply to borrowers with the representatives of those banks that did survive.

However, before large-scale (not for specific projects), credit is still far. So, these days the press-service of one of the top ten banks owned by foreign owners, reported the following:

is planned that in 2009 in Ukraine, new lending would be suspended, a portfolio of retail and corporate loans restructured, and efforts related to the recovery of loans will be expanded. Costs in Ukraine will be reduced (the closure of 100 branches and job cuts). On the other emerging markets, efforts will be made to attract new customers.

In other words, prudent zabugornye the bankers are afraid of our country, the unpredictability of our politicum and our unpredictable economy.

New

thousands of empty offices and apartments with psevdoelitnym repairs, which do not what to sell, and lease will be impossible to pass - that is what awaits the Ukrainian property market if the price per square meter, and will continue to be artificially maintained at inadequate levels.

Incidentally, some websites, where the announcement of the sale of the capital's apartments are published with photos, soon is not excluded a massive influx of visitors, but not for the purpose pritsenitsya for future purchases, but just laugh. What is one of the last of Internet resource with the announcement of the sale of apartment in Kiev in Pechersk district, but not in a prestigious central part of the city, nearly 2 million euro. Proposal gives piquancy by the fact that instead of precious wood on the floor deshevenky laminate, and the situation in an apartment in this ascetic. No less impressive, and some other fotopredlozheniya, where, with reference to the euro are naked, badly poshpaklevannye wall, with strashnenkoy tiles - a la the Soviet Union - in the bathroom.

More

least 30% of the fall

To ensure that the market mechanism as secondary or primary residence (and with them the national economy) twist in the usual mode, you need at least an additional 30 percent (from today's prices) reduction in the monetary value of one square meter, and that happens very soon.

And, as expected, landing is clearly re-square meters of so-called high-end housing in the percentage will be much tougher than the landing of the same square meters in the flats Economy. After all, if ekonomsegmente even now, during the period of severe economic crisis, the movement is not stopped, the market for expensive apartments almost completely frozen. All less willing to part with hundreds of thousands of dollars for housing because, as stated in the apartment ads in the housing is cheap 300 dollar Chinese air conditioner, or connected the Internet, or apartment is equipped with plastic windows, which are set in rich countries, only the poorest population or exclusively in offices. But it was such cheap arguments, many owners of flats sold motivate their desire to obtain for them the amount in excess of the average wages of ordinary Ukrainians for many decades ...

Vadim Bašta

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