Quotations euros to the dollar returned to its week-long rising trend

The impact of yesterday's macro-and microeconomic information to a segment on the highly risky assets, it appears that looks relatively positive.

In the second quarter of TG figures for earnings per share bank Goldman Sachs, Johnson Johnson Company, and Intel accounted for $ 4.93, $ 1.15 and $ 0.18, which was significantly higher than expected, in particular, the experts of First Call, respectively, at $ 3.54, $ 1, 11 and $ 0.08. This is characteristic that the Intel Corporation said it expected very likely a seasonal improvement in reporting in the second half of 2009 Earlier, CNBC analyst M. Whitney improved market rating to Goldman Sachs' buy 'and raised its estimates of income of the bank in 2010

However, data released yesterday by the corporate statistics still do not give grounds for forecasting a relatively rapid recovery of activity in the American economy. According to statement yesterday, representatives of Dell, the high competition in the technology sector and the high price of components will reduce the profitability of the company's business in the current quarter.

The volume of retail sales in the United States in June TG grew by 0.6% (m /m) against the average forecast is 0.4% and 0.5% in the previous month.

The main increase in the indicator provide a seasonal increase of sales of gasoline, as well as motor vehicles, which apparently has reduced somewhat for the market a favorable effect of the specified statistics.

Finally, the June production indicator of inflation in America, according to yesterday's figures showed the importance of -4.6% (g /d). Specialists in this case, on average, had expected the reduction of the index at 5.3% against its reduction to 5% in May 2009

The financial sector has taken this information negatively. It is obvious that investors fear a relatively early start of collapse of programs of macroeconomic monetary support from U.S. regulators.

However, at this moment such expectations as a whole does not have the support of the real statistics. Moreover, even if the reduction in the rate of monetary expansion, the Fed, financial system of excess liquidity in the coming months are likely to provide finance in Asia, particularly Japanese investors, and the European regulatory frameworks, which in recent years is gradually, though fairly cautious start Stronger action is associated with the policy of quantitative easing.

As a result, the stock, commodity market, as well as the carry trade sector finished the day yesterday shopping for a recovery in investment activity. This morning the trend continued.

Against this background, the traditional for the last few years of positive correlation of the dynamics of the segment on the highly risky investments and the rate EUR /USD, quotes the euro to the dollar returned to its week-long rising trend, which implies a further increase of this currency pair in the the short term. However, overestimate the impact of this medium in the circumstances of the situation in the FX, does not seem worth it.

The nature of yesterday's exchange rate changes EUR /CHF and USD /CHF is in favor of assumptions about the prospect of a SNB intervention against the national currency, which continues to indirectly indicate the possibility of a policy related to the depreciation of the euro, and by the ECB.

declining, according to recent data, activity in the credit segment EMC continues to point to the possibility of applying the European Central Bank's measures to mitigate monetary policy to stimulate investment in the real sector of the European economy. Medium-term risks of deterioration in the macroeconomic situation at this segment are stored. According to yesterday's data, an important leading indicator of economic climate in the economy EMC calculated ZEW Institute in July, TG showed a reduction of its rate to 39.5 pt. against 42.7 the previous month and the average forecast is for a 44.2 points.

The Bank of Japan today, during its regular meeting left without changing the base rate at 0.1% per annum, while lowering its forecast changes in the national GDP in 2009 - 2010 FG -3.1% To -3.4% (g /d). In parallel BoJ announced the expansion of its policy of quantitative easing through increased purchases on the open market, commercial papers and corporate bonds, an increase in funding companies at fixed rates and some other measures.

This information is generally an additional incentive to enhance the inflow of Japanese capital to foreign markets. Medium-term prospects for devaluation of the Japanese currency on the FX was still relevant.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 12:00 Moscow time was 32.05 and 37.86 rubles. against, respectively, 32.50 and 38.34 rubles. Tuesday morning at the auction.

From the perspective of the coming weeks for quotations ruble on international FX the opportunity to represent a certain period of stabilization. Rate USD /RUB kickbacks from a fairly strong level of resistance 33,00-34,00 EUR. to the dollar. Oil prices also rose by a fairly significant support at around $ 59-60 a barrel, but bearish trend segment on the highly risky assets, possibly, is now, including - the technical problems of its further development.

However, in general, the recent gradual decline in the ruble to bivalyutnoy basket Bank of Russia and the USD in the long run to the end of TG, perhaps as a result of continued, even in the face of improvement in the financial markets of Russia, compared with the current period.

Increased government measures to stimulate the growth of credit in the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the current environment is likely to contribute to the development of this trend.

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