Russia market is trading with a slight increase is unlikely to present suspension of the fall will grow into a significant increase

"Hunting" for Russia"s assets is not there

Today the market is trading with a slight increase of 0,2% (17.00). In fact, that today"s suspension of the fall will grow into a significant growth, is hard to believe: on the oil market is developing short-term bearish trend. An additional factor of pressure on the quotes, is negative situation with liquidity in connection wit1000h the payment of severance tax and excise taxes. Balances on correspondent accounts with the lowest now 29.07.09 until the end of the month the liquidity situation remains tense.

Regarding oil prices, it is difficult to predict. I have the memory of the events of 2008, when experts from the International Energy Agency "slept through" the growth of oil to $ 140 per barrel, then OPEC experts gave a forecast of reaching the summer of 2008 price of $ 150-170 per barrel. Both forecasts were "in milk". Now prices traded below $ 75.5 per barrel and the market for growth stocks in 1400 - 1410 on the MICEX index does not look solid foundation for growth. Further reduction in oil prices to the level of support for $ 70 per barrel is very likely in this case, the MICEX index expects another drawdown. The world financial crisis has put our economy rating of "unsatisfactory" - wait, then, that foreign investors will put our stock market rating of "excellent" a little naive. Despite the fact that Russia has just emerged from the woods and went on innovative ways of development, and Fitch Ratings raised the outlook on Russia"s rating from "negative" to "stable", "hunting" for Russia"s assets is not observed.

The situation with the approval of Ben Bernanke to the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve is uncertain, the situation around the debt of Greece even more difficult. Europeans can not solve the problem of Greece, because in Europe now almost no foci of well-being. In relatively prosperous French public deficit in 2009 amounted to 7,9%. We now advise investors to accept the fact that if in the next few days the bright idea of playing for the purchase of shares and will be, then the bright light of the February light, they will iron a dark game ideas. Buy shares do not. As supports, they are at 1370 and 1310 points on the MICEX index, and main support in the fact that oil prices will drop below $ 65 a barrel, it is unlikely.

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