Russian indexes today are under pressure, but then begin the rehabilitation

At the end of a very tumultuous trading week of volatility in financial markets eased. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of pessimistic forecasts of the World Bank on the development of world economy and the weakness of the American consumer, the world's major indexes closed in the red. Apparently, after some consolidation at current levels, the world's leading indices can continue to decline. Opening of the Russian market is likely to be negative. Weak dynamics of trades on foreign sites, complementary to the reduction of oil prices. The only sector that can be supported today - metallurgy.

After a turbulent week of trading Friday trading on the American stock sites completed slight decrease: Dow index has lost 0,4%, SP - 0,15%. However, the current weak trend is understandable, given the rise of the markets last Thursday. In addition, the reasons for the growth did not provide statistics. For example, the U.S. Department of Commerce published a report according to which income Americans jumped to 1.4%, but increase their personal spending rose by only 0.3%. Modest statistics on personal spending was not able to compensate for a good index of consumer sentiment. The fact remains: despite the improvement in sentiment, Americans are reluctant to waste.

Asian indices traded at 1% below Friday levels. On the one hand, the market supports the statistics of Japan, under which industrial production increased by 5.9% against a background of increasing stocks of producers, although these were weaker than expectations. While looked the telecommunications sector, which supports ambitious optimistic projections of sales of LG. On the other hand the serious concerns raised market: Friday statistics show the level of consumption in the United States recovers very poorly and Asian manufacturers may face a crisis of overproduction.

In general, since the Fed meeting, the situation has not undergone fundamental changes. Low inflation allows the U.S. monetary authorities continue to flood the market liquidity, which reflects a record low rate treasuries. Against this background, the capital, after a pause once again rushed to the developing site. Russian indices may be under pressure on Monday, but after a slight decline (1-2%), they must begin to rebuild.

It should be noted that while the weakness of domestic industry, the data on the fall promproizvodstva and worsening macroeconomic conditions, will not have much pressure on the share prices of leading companies. The commodity sector remains the main battery coming into the market of private capital, thus, the demand will continue to be concentrated in the first 15-20 second-tier securities. Sufficiently well with the fundamental point of view, at current oil prices should look neftyanka: Lukoil and Rosneft. Second rate they would continue to follow Surgutneftegaz, - the security of the domestic neftyanki company.

local negative energy can bring news of the sentence, NP Board market, in effect freeze the liberalization of energy market. So far, of any government response to such proposals NP is not known, but another extension of free zone trades (50%) had already planned on July 1. In general, the most attractive piece of paper in the sector at the moment remains RusGidro, speculative interest in which is supported by expectations of listing in London, which will be held in July.

The key event this week should be a way non farm payrolls, which is in preparation for the celebration of Independence Day in the United States, will be released on Thursday: a reduction in employment at 355 thousand and an increase in unemployment to 9.6%.

Also on Thursday a meeting of the ECB. The surprise of the European monetary authorities, almost no one is waiting, although hints of printing money machine, and the allocation of aid to new EU members can support European stock markets. It is also worth noting that after the placement of short Treasury bill on Monday, restoring liquidity in the market will support the growth of stock indices.

In the coming days the prospects for the market may be in the range of 950-1000 points of index MICEX
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