The country will be savory?

Over the past two weeks, the cost of sugar has increased rapidly. In most regions, per kilogram of white gold is requested, starting from 5 UAH. But in some villages of Sumy region have already taken and to 6.5 hryvnia for one kilogram. Market participants and experts attribute the price boom of the start of the season canning of fruits and berries. However, fear that without the permission of the state problem with the import of sugar prices are unlikely to be curbed. In addition, some experts predict that buying desheveyuschih active sugar mills can run to create the preconditions for the price dictates of the market by the manufacturers.

number of crops in sugar beet has decreased dramatically because of the low profitability of production. In 2008, farmers sow beet 333 thousand hectares instead of 500 hectares which had been in 2007. As a result, in 2008 for processing plants took 12 million 535 thousand tons of sugar beets (in the 2007/2008 marketing year (MG) - 16 million 370 thousand tons). A production of sugar in the country in 2008/2009 MG decreased by 15% - up to 1.6 million tons (in 2007/2008 MG - One million 859 thousand tons).

this year, according to the Minagropolitiki Ukraine will harvest 15-16 million tons, while production of sugar - 1,5 million tons. However, experts are not so optimistic in their assessments. According to the President of the association Ukrainian club of agrarian business Alex Lissitsy, domestic production will be a maximum of 1.4 million tons. With an annual consumption of Ukrainians, two million tons of sugar, its deficit will be about 600 thousand tons. A deficit, as is known, leads to a rise in prices.

bring down the price the market will be able to chill after joining the market of the country of import of sugar, sure Lissitsa. It is clear that the importation of any good economy does not promise, because it destroys the national producer. But in this situation without it does not do.

If after a month the first two or three companies will be able to deliver sugar cane, the situation in the market is stabilizing. If it is not possible, then raise the prices can be up to 9, and possibly up to 10 UAH per kilogram, - predicts expert. For arguments that the Belarusian imports, and so валит in the country, he said that almost the entire neighborhood sugar is two to three factories, which produce sweet drinks. A market where the population falls and then a small portion. Basically, the situation remains today, due to intervention from gosrezerva and transitional balances from the previous year.

Analyst Astrum Investment Management Eugene Oksha believes that the price of sugar in relation to excite unpleasant developments in the global market. Recall that according to the agency Bloomberg, which refers to the forecast of the International Sugar Organization (ISO), world demand for sugar will exceed its production by 7.8 million tons. This figure is twice as many titles before. Worsen the prognosis had a reduced harvest in India, which traditionally consumes a lot of sugar. However, the current crop failure forcing it to import more sugar from abroad. According to preliminary estimates of analysts worldwide, sugar imports to India will grow by 33% - up to 4 million tons per year. Smooth out fluctuations in consumer demand and, consequently, stop the sharp rise in world prices would not be able to even 20% increase in harvest in Brazil, which is a world producer of sugar.

It should be noted that since the beginning of 2009, sugar on world markets have already went up by 30% - to the maximum in July 2006 15.41 cents per pound at auction in New York. It is estimated the world's experts in the fourth quarter of 2009, the value of this product may increase by another 30% by early next year to reach 20 cents - a record level since 1981.

Theoretically, the ceiling of domestic prices - this is the price of raw sugar brought to the Ukraine to the WTO's quota to the cost of processing and VAT. This year, for the first time will be delivered 260 thousand tons of raw sugar quota. In this regard, the sugar brought within the range of WTO, will serve as a guide for the entire Ukrainian market. And so, as the world sugar market, this expensive, the more it will grow in value, the higher domestic prices would be to drag it , - predicts Oksha.

When asked whether the current market monopoly elements of collusion, Lissitsa said, what does not. According to the same analyst AstrumInvestment Management, as this exclusive agreement now may not be, but the sugar market increasingly resembles legopoliyu. That is, the market has already drawn 8-10 large players, who hold half the market, and which in themselves can do the weather.

Manufacturers in the last two or three years, worked continuously on the verge of profitability, many factories closed down because the price of sugar was low. Now they can aftergame. And they want to do it. all kinds of ways to try to keep prices high, -- explains further Oksha. Attempts to curb the price the state through the release of sugar from gosrezerva expert is scarce. Indeed, the volume of sugar, state-owned enterprises, small and enough for two, maximum three months.

What all this has for the domestic market? Experts agree one thing: survive only plants belonging to the large agroholdings that are 60-70% of its own raw material production. Licenses for work were 70 factories, but the real work can begin only about 50 plants, both analysts say. To plant will not close, it is necessary to allow the importation of goods made of raw sugar, the bill proposes, in his national deputy Vladimir Maruschenko.
People's Deputy

desire to legalize those made on the scheme Lissitsa approves, but with reservations: It is necessary to permit only deliver raw materials to companies that grow and produce sugar. the only way to get rid of the elements of corruption. But no, there is a situation as in 2005, when Two or three companies that had nothing to do with the cultivation of sugar in Ukraine, received the main income from this. Our manufacturers do not want a repetition of this situation.

order not to produce fraudulent schemes, he suggested to support the work of the plants through the stimulation of raw material suppliers, paying them for 750 UAH per hectare of the crop. However, this stimulation should not be backdated.

If this money is paid on time, in March and February, rather than in August-September, when a farmer can be, and thought to sow or not to beet. Since gosdotatsii paid primarily at the end of the year, then nobody will not grow a culture of risk , - said Lissitsa.

question, and plants can be solved for the other scenario, in the context of the so-called market consolidation and reformatting. This is in the hands of great players. Now they offer great opportunities for buying sugar refineries, which are cheaper in the half.

Such a trend. agroholdings Major, who did not have sugar, two or three years ago, now, according to its cycle sevosmeny include the cultivation of sugar beet. And for this, they tend to buy very cheap sugar refineries and build a vertically integrated supply chain , - said Oksha. As a result, in the long run such a merger could lead to price the market dictates.

They specifically consolidate as much as possible and then will play his hand. You remember that the WTO quota for Ukraine to import sugar. First, to allow any import of Ukrainian companies, if he has a contract with a country that is included in the WTO. But then this decision has been reconsidered in favor of the current producers, who already had experience in manufacturing. In other words, they are a lobby that decision and is now simply controlling the domestic market. Here is the first step to ensure that the price of bottles controlled to some extent, - summed up Oksha.

Natalia Bilousova
Obama supports 49% of American investors and 87% of foreign
Forex Asia
Domestic Indexes today will be able to compensate for the loss of yesterday's trading day
Today, to make adjustments to the dynamics of markets can be corporate accountability Microsoft, Credit Suisse Group, AT T
Conference on-line: ruble: bypassed without devaluation?
Rollback the MICEX index to the level of 960-950 points will provide an opportunity to continue growing with a more comfortable level
Futures on the RTS index in the morning was able to penetrate the downstream channel
Gold futures continued to consolidate in the region of maxima
In the short-term growth potential of the securities TGK-9 is limited

Leave a comment