The Russian stock market is expected to decline in the entire spectrum of the most liquid securities
By admin at 3 July, 2009, 2:15 pm
Yesterday's trading ended in quite the expected decline in the main Russian indices (RTS index - minus 1.79%, the index of MICEX - 3.5%). As part of the forecast - a negative opening, lateral momentum in the middle of the day. Low activity of trades. U.S. Labor Statistics, show much higher expectations of the fall in employment without regard to the agricultural sector and continued growth of unemployment, increased the negative dynamics of world equity grounds, led to a strengthening dollar and consequently a decline in world prices for oil, base and precious metals. At this very objective external background and the negative momentum in the efforts across the spectrum of Russia's most liquid securities. As a result, there has been quite the expected decline in the entire spectrum of blue chips (Gazprom - minus 4.99%, Lukoil - minus 3.6%, Nornikel - minus 3.63%, Sberbank - minus 4.06%, Rosneft - minus 3.0%, Surgutneftegas - minus 2.81%, VTB - minus 3.25%). The complete correlation with the external fund and commodity markets, the summer decline in emotion, but an increase in volatility due to reduced trading volume. In general, all global markets, and including Russia, are beginning to fully take into account the duration of the coming global economic recovery.
In today's day off in the United States but emerged in the morning on all the parameters of the negative external background, it is expected a negative opening of the main Russian indexes. Quiet side dynamics later afternoon. Thus, a significant decrease in the major indexes finished trading in the U.S. (DJI - minus 2.63%, NASDAQ - minus 2.67%, S P500 - minus 2.91%). U.S. Labor Statistics, show much higher expectations of the fall in employment without regard to the agricultural sector and continued growth of unemployment, investors returned into pessimism about the quick recovery of the U.S. economy. All labor statistics showed that prior to the recovery in consumer demand is still far. The result - the reduction in Europe, the negative trend in all commodity markets. The decline in world oil prices in turn have put pressure on shares of the energy sector. The index of the largest oil companies fell as a result of trades at 3.59%. Worse than the market was and the dynamics of the shares of banks. At the end of the day, shares of Citigroup fell by 3.03%, shares of JPMorgan - to 4.44%, shares of Bank of America - at 3.14%.
After all disappointed investors worldwide decline of Labor Statistics United States - in the stock markets of Latin America (Mexico - minus 1.93%, Brazil - minus 1.01%, Argentina - minus 2.99%), mixed dynamics - in Asia (Japan - minus 0.61% Korea - 0.52% China - 0.38%, Taiwan - minus 0.03%).
It was a significant decline after the unfortunate American labor statistics - on the world oil market yesterday, the continuation of negative trends in the auction in Asia today. Negative dynamics of world oil price increases and as the strengthening dollar and the euro to strengthen against the rejection of investor risk. August futures price of oil brand Brent on the results of yesterday's trades fell by 2.14 dollar to 66.65. In Asia, prices declined by 0.2 dollars.
Priority decline - in the market of the major base metals. As a result of yesterday's auction at the LME, three-month futures price of nickel rose by 0.3%, the price of copper fell to 1.02%, and zinc - to 1.27%, lead - to 1.84%.
The average 4-percent decline - in the ADRs of Russian oil and gas stocks in the U.S., mostly bad discount relative to the closing price of shares in RTS 2 July: Gazprom - 0.5%, Lukoil - minus 1.66%, Surgutneftegaz - minus 1.5%.
The Russian stock market is expected to open a negative fundamental indexes. Minor fluctuations in the side - later afternoon. Reduction of the day against the backdrop of summer small and lacking emotional bidding. Reducing the entire spectrum of the most liquid securities. Testing the main index lower limit of the range of short-term consolidation of 930-940 points in the first half of the day, the fluctuations are slightly higher than those levels in the middle of bidding. In general, the preservation of significant potential negative correction in the summer of broadband consolidation with the lower boundary of 760-800 points.
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