Week on the world stage: Nigerian militants fighting for an expensive oil

  After

enough rapid early July, took place on the political week issued a rather quiet. Japan continues to develop a script running early general elections and the ruling party is trying to find a new leader, so as not to lose the remains of the electorate. United States in Afghanistan, apparently received his Gilad Shalit: captured American soldiers can be a powerful asset in the hands of the Taliban and a nightmare for Washington. Maintained for two months, oil prices, Nigerian militants last week announced a truce with the authorities on 15 July for 60 days. The reason for such a step was when the leader of the Movement for the Liberation of Niger Delta (MEND), Henry Oku in custody since 2007, under an amnesty for militants organization. However, in general, experts do not hesitate to express optimism about the situation in the oil-producing regions of the country.

Collisions between the authorities and the MEND rebels first took place in early 2006, when it was attacked at the office of the Italian company Agip. The main requirements of the Movement - the nationalization of oil and gas industry and the introduction of a special federal tax system, under which income from the activities of foreign companies must be fully received in the local authorities, and then part will be levied to the federal budget. In fact, this so-called enlightened version of the requirements of many groups within the organization simply require the government and foreign companies pay for security. After a few shares of the Government seemed to have been able to establish control over the situation, and, according to some observers, by paying fighters unofficial tax on foreign oil companies. Another sharp aggravation of the situation happened in May of this year, when MEND declared an all-out war on the authorities. Since then, the attacks were committed by more than 10 of the oil industry, as well as on ships of foreign companies.

Pessimism observers about the current truce is due to several factors. First, some experts believe that MEND is a little more than an umbrella structure, that is, combines many of the smaller factions. This means that the parent structure, which could be to negotiate, may not be as such. The region's population is 31 million and more than 40 ethnic groups, which also speaks in favor of this theory. Secondly, the government is unlikely to go on a serious redistribution of financial flows, which insists the rebels, because in this case the country might not be enough funds even for their own needs in the fuel (Nigeria does not have its own processing facilities). This means that after the truce, the government may try to re-establish control over the troubled areas by military means. As reports Bloomberg referring to expert opinion, the government could still useful to use the two months of the truce if the attempt to legally transfer a part of sovereignty to the field and start to fund infrastructure projects and poverty alleviation in the Niger Delta region. However, such an outcome is highly unlikely. According to various sources, the per capita income in this region does not reach even the middle of the country ($ 260), and the unemployment rate is around 90% in some localities.

Proved oil reserves in Nigeria for an estimated amount to 4.5 billion tonnes (or about 3% of world reserves). The country supplies oil to Western Europe and the United States, is a member of OPEC in 2007 is the sixth largest oil production in the world. Now, because of militant attacks, foreign companies have been forced to reduce the extraction of 20%, and Angola, Nigeria ceded first place for oil production on the African continent. Domestically, the oil sector is about 20% of GDP, 95% of export earnings and provides up to 80% of budget revenues.

Other events of the week:

next week is expected to:

Asia: growth in the hope of restoring the world economy
The course increased dollar purchases - the daily review of the cash markets
Cabinet proposes to abolish the increase Yushchenko Kiev tariffs zhilkomuslugi
Worse than the market at the Russian sites look paper Polyus Gold (-1.89%) and prefy Sberbank (-0.11%)
Perhaps the fight the bulls and bears for the psychologically important milestone for investors in 1000 items
From the blue chips to yesterday's maximums were able confidently to update only the shares of oil and gas heavyweight
Gazprom will hold talks with the shipbuilding company for the delivery of the first tanker-metanovozov Russian production
Precious metals market review for 20.07.09
European stock markets finished in the black sixth consecutive trading session

Leave a comment